Friends, I’m asked all the time what I think 2014 will look like as it relates to real estate. Thanks to my friend Steve Harney and his whole team at Keeping Current Matters, I’ve been able to answer that question. Here’s some of his hard labor research garnished with a little bit of mine. Enjoy!
- FHA – loan amounts have been increased in the DFW metro area. I mentioned this last week and on my blog FHA Loan Limits UP, but am compelled to send a gentle reminder. The new max loan amount is $287,500……meaning your clients can look for homes up to $298,000. AND the minimum down payment for FHA is still only 3.5% and can be a gift from family or friends.
- Millennial Boomers! – my friend, THIS will be a HUGE piece of the 2014 market. Think about it….all those 20 & 30 somethings that graduated over the last several years haven’t been able to land a good job, thus forcing them to move back in with mom and dad. Well, now that we’re beginning to see 150k – 200k new jobs added each month these millennials will finally be moving out of mom and dad’s house and either renting OR, better yet, BUYING their own home.
- Rates – The Feds have already began to taper their bond (mortgage bonds) purchasing thus causing rates to rise. Most Fed presidents across the US expect by the end of 2014 there will be NO more bond purchases. Period. This will force rates higher, no way around it.
- Prices – the last 4 quarters (2012 Q4 – 2013 Q3) show year-over-year 5% or greater price appreciation for the Texas region – according to the FHFA. In another study done by Fitch Ratings Texas is one of only 9 states to SUSTAIN this current level of home prices going forward!
- Educate your clients – BE that agent that educates those millennials as to WHY it might be best to buy now vs later. As prices rise AND rates rise that same $250,000 house is likely to cost them $150 – $250 more per month!
- Market Normalization – in Texas we’ve been running WAY short on inventory, especially in the first half of 2013. We are just now seeing inventory get back to ~5-6 months. Friends, this is a GOOD thing! Why? As these millennials and the rest of the unemployed’s begin to enter the labor force they’re going to be in the market for a home. During the first half of 2013 this wouldn’t have necessarily been possible due the shortage of inventory. BUT NOW…….. strap on your seatbelts!
- Housing Projections – according to the Urban Land Institute there are currently 121M households in the US. Over the next three years we’ll experience a rocketing 3.7% growth! That’s an additional 4.48M households being formed!
If you’d like any additional information on the statistical data referenced above please reach out to me – I’m happy to share my research, my data, and my sources!