buyers flocking to DFW? dallas fed for president?

September 9, 2011 — Leave a comment

wow, whole lotta wood to chop here so let’s jump right in….check out this chart

this chart displays non-ag employment growth by Fed Reserve Districts over the past 21 1/2 years (since 1990).  now, take a closer look at the shaded bar, far right of the chart which represents the ‘official’ end of the recession according to the Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research.  it doesn’t take an economics professor to see that TEXAS kicks major a$$. 

using june 2009 as our start date and june of 2011 as our end date TEXAS has accounted for 49.9% of net new jobs created in the entire country!  if that doesn’t get your fired up about the real estate horizon in the Dallas / Fort Worth area then your wood’s wet!  now, you may be asking yourself (or me) WHERE and WHAT jobs are being created?? i’m glad you asked – the chart below shows employment growth by sector since the recession ‘officially’ ended in june 2009.

most jobs have been created in the educational and health services sector; second most in the professional and business sector.  surprisingly only 2.1% of the jobs created in the great state of TEXAS have been in the oil/gas biz. 

WHY all the jobs in TEXAS you ask??  that’s simple, really.  businesses, jobs, and capital will go to where taxes and spending and regulatory policy are most conducive to growth.  that’s it.  wake up call for the federal gov’t and current administration??  i think so. 

ok, so, Dallas Fed for Prez?? if you don’t recognize the name Richard Fisher you probably will soon.  he is the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank who manages more than $100 Billion (yes, that’s with a “B”) and whom i gathered most of my info from for this article from his august 17, 2011 speech found here  http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2011/fs110817.cfm.  he is also a fellow doom & gloom media critic. 

the Dallas Fed hit the nail right on the head when he said “I would suggest that unless you were on another planet, no consumer with access to a television, radio or the Internet could have escaped hearing their president, senators and their congressperson telling them the sky was falling. With the leadership of the nation―Republicans and Democrats alike―and every talking head in the media making clear hour after hour, day after day in the run-up to Aug. 2 that a financial disaster was lurking around the corner, it does not take much imagination to envision consumers deciding to forego or delay some discretionary expenditure they had planned. Instead, they might well be inclined to hunker down to weather the perfect storm they were being warned was rapidly approaching. Watching the drama as it unfolded, I could imagine consumers turning to each other in millions of households, saying: “Honey, we need to cancel that trip we were planning and that gizmo or service we wanted to buy. We better save more and spend less.”

he goes on to say that those with the capacity to hire are immobilized NOT because they lack entrepreneurial zeal or do not wish to grow; NOT because they can’t access cheap credit but rather they simply cannot budget or manage for the uncertainty of fiscal and regulatory policy.  businesses have NO idea where the gov’t will be cutting back on spending, what measures will be taken on the taxation front, and how all this will affect their cost structure or customer base.  businesses have money in their pockets and/or banks increasingly willing to lend BUT the uncertainty of our gov’t paralyzes them. 

Richard Fisher decided to dissent from the majority of the 12 federal reserve presidents’ decision to commit to hold the federal funds interest rate at its current level well into 2013.  his explanation is right on target.  please take 5 minutes to read his speech http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2011/fs110817.cfm . 

people here in the great state of TEXAS are not very pro-government, the legislature meets 140 days every two years and we pay them only $600 p/month….and that’s probably too much.  we have a different attitude here to the role of gov’t.  maybe that’s why our economy leads the nation….afterall TEXAS was the last one to enter the recession and the first one to exit!

according to cole the real estate sky is NOT falling….especially here in TEXAS.

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