jobs, NOT rates, NOT tax credits, JOBS will drive a housing market!

April 8, 2010 — Leave a comment

last friday’s jobs number was/is VERY important to our delicate housing market.  think about it…..families are not going to buy homes if they’re worried about losing their job AND more existing homeowner’s fall behind as they lose their jobs – especially when they owe MORE than their homes are worth.  march (last month) was the BIGGEST jobs gain we’ve had in 3 years – folks….that is GREAT news! that is especially great news when you consider that job losses drove the vast majority of missed payments last year among “good credit” borrowers, according to a Freddie Mac report released last week. 

for you statistics lovers – 58% of borrowers who went delinquent last year cited unemployment OR reduced income for missing their payments; 16% said payments had become excessive; 11% said they fell behind due to illness or death; 5% cited marital problems; 3% due to inability to sell; 2% caused by job transfers; and 1% because of property defects. 

so, as you can see, job creation is the main driver in any healthy housing market and all signs point to a job creation recovery right around the corner.  furthermore, according to TrimTabs Investment Research US employment is stronger than being reported. the bureau of labor statistics (bls) estimated 162,000 new jobs last month (march) whereas TrimTabs felt the US economy actually added closer to 280,000.  according to TrimTabs the main reason for the discrepancy lies in different cut-off dates.  the BLS uses a survey cut-off date in mid-march while TrimTabs uses income tax withholding through the END of march.  growth in withholdings accelerated late last month, so the BLS did not fully capture the surge in employment at that time.

here are some more stats for you:

  • the TrimTabs online job postings index rose 5.3% in march, and it’s up 21.8% ytd
  • the Monster Employment Index rose 5.9% year over year in march, and online job demand INCREASED in ALL 28 major metro markets
  • temporary employment increased 2% in march , and its up 18.1% since september 2009
  • income tax withholdings SOARED an adjusted 4.3% year over year in march – STRONGEST growth in 2 years!
  • corporate tax payments SURGED 43.8% year over year in the past 3 months – 2nd largest increase in TrimTabs records

see the wall street journal article here http://tinyurl.com/y86pqmv

according to cole jobs are being created which fuels the economy which fuels the housing market.

much success! – cole

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